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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 35, as St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.81 xG and Waterford 0.78 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Waterford attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 62% | Draw 22% | Waterford 16%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 49%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 PPG, Waterford 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights