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Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.48 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.21 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 45% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Sligo Rovers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights