St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shelbourne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 4 for Shelbourne and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Shelbourne 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Shelbourne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shelbourne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.026 / defence 0.742 | Shelbourne attack 0.949 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.340. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 St Patrick's Athl. games / 69 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Shelbourne 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Shelbourne 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 / Shelbourne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.026 / def 0.742 | Shelbourne attack 0.949 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Shelbourne xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Record (9 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 3W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 4W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.91
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Shelbourne xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.94 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 30W 21D 17L from 68 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 17L across 68 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.63 PPG, Shelbourne on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 18W 11D 5L from 34 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 13W 16D 5L across 34 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 66%.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 17L in their last 68 games (1.63 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 24W 27D 17L in their last 68 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shelbourne away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.91 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.62 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 35%, Shelbourne 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 44% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 65% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 44% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shelbourne 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.03 / defence 0.74 against Shelbourne attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 34% | Shelbourne 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 37%, Shelbourne 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 PPG, Shelbourne 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.