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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Shelbourne — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — St Patrick's Athl. at 1.50 PPG versus Shelbourne's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 5 for Shelbourne and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Shelbourne winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Table Standings

In the Premier Division table, St Patrick's Athl. sit 3rd on 42 points, 2 places and 8 points ahead of Shelbourne in 5th.

On home turf, St Patrick's Athl.'s Premier Division record reads 9W 1D 2L this term. Away from home, Shelbourne have posted 5W 5D 1L in Premier Division this season. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

Trading Patterns

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Shelbourne 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Shelbourne 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 xG and Shelbourne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / defence 0.604 | Shelbourne attack 1.122 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 60 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 18%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Shelbourne 5.56. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Shelbourne 70%.

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