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Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.42 xG and Shelbourne 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shelbourne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.41 / defence 0.90 against Shelbourne attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 45% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 25%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights