St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 39%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.131 / defence 0.832 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.004 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.060. Data: 44 St Patrick's Athl. games / 43 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Shamrock Rovers 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 / Shamrock Rovers 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.131 / def 0.832 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.004 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 39% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.13) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.05
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 37W 12D 23L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (20W 6D 10L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 14D 7L from 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 29%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.