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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Galway United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Galway United 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.49 xG and Galway United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Galway United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.19 / defence 0.84 against Galway United attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 28% | Galway United 30%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Galway United 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.64 PPG, Galway United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights