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Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 1, as St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Drogheda United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Drogheda United attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights