St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG, Derry City 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 2 for Derry City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.066 / defence 0.884 | Derry City attack 1.050 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 0.916. Data: 52 St Patrick's Athl. games / 52 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Derry City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 / Derry City 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.066 / def 0.884 | Derry City attack 1.050 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.126 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Derry City xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance of winning, Derry City a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 2W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.07) and Derry City's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
37%
2.71
35%
2.84
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.87
0.85
Derry City xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.85 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 37W 12D 23L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.82 PPG from 72 outings (36W 23D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Derry City on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 20W 6D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.86 points per game from 36 outings (19W 10D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Derry City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Derry City have gone 36W 23D 13L in their last 72 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Derry City away: 1.86 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derry City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 39%, Derry City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Derry City in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.02 xG and Derry City 0.85 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 35% | Derry City 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.