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Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cork City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 4-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.82 xG and Cork City 0.67 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Cork City attack 0.74 / defence 1.38, drawn from 66/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 64% | Draw 25% | Cork City 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 43%, Cork City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cork City's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights