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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Cork City 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 3-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.80 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cork City outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.21 / defence 0.80 against Cork City attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 51/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Draw 18% | Cork City 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 57%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights