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Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 53%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights