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Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 xG and Bohemians 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights