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Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Waterford 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat Waterford 1-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.12 xG and Waterford 1.39 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Waterford attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 30% | Draw 27% | Waterford 43%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 51%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.32 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights