🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 15, as Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 35%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights