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Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.24 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights