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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Sligo Rovers 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 1-2 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Shelbourne attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 32% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 38%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights