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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 2-2 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.43 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.25 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 28% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 45%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 52%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights