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Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.22 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 33%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights