Sligo Rovers 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 7W 1D 2L at The Showgrounds — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Sligo Rovers's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Dundalk have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sligo Rovers's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Dundalk winning.
It is worth noting that Dundalk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 42% versus Dundalk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Dundalk 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.60 xG and Dundalk 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.049 / defence 0.853 | Dundalk attack 0.941 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 0.931. Data: 66 Sligo Rovers games / 66 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sligo Rovers (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Dundalk lead the H2H ledger, but Sligo Rovers carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sligo Rovers 30% | Dundalk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.60 / Dundalk 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.049 / def 0.853 | Dundalk attack 0.941 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.389 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Dundalk xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 57% chance of winning, Dundalk a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (6 meetings): Sligo Rovers 1W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 4W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.94x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.78
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.34
0.75
Dundalk xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
29.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.75 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 22W 14D 30L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 22W 16D 28L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.24 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (15W 8D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Sligo Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 8W 6D 19L from 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 22W 14D 30L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 33%, Dundalk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 42% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 42% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 54% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 42% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 2-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.60 xG and Dundalk 0.75 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 17%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Dundalk 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.21 PPG, Dundalk 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.