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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sligo Rovers and Drogheda United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 13, as Sligo Rovers and Drogheda United drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.00 xG and Drogheda United 1.44 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sligo Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Drogheda United attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 25% | Draw 29% | Drogheda United 46%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.19 PPG, Drogheda United 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights