📋

Poisson rates Derry City at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Derry City encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Derry City make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Showgrounds this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Derry City have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.00 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Sligo Rovers 3W, Derry City 5W, 2D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 24 matches this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 5D 14L. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Derry City's full-season record stands at 6W 11D 8L from 25 games. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 25 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Derry City have been the more prolific side this season at 1.30 goals per game compared to 0.80 for the hosts. Derry City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.20 per game versus 1.70 for the hosts. Derry City lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 5). Derry City are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Sligo Rovers 2/2 vs Derry City 3/4 this season.

Current Standings

In the Premier Division table, Derry City sit 6th on 29 points, 4 places and 9 points ahead of Sligo Rovers in 10th.

At home this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 3W 3D 6L. On the road, Derry City's record stands at 1W 6D 5L this term. Sligo Rovers: Relegation - Division 1.

Trading

Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Derry City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Derry City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.20 xG and Derry City 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.862 / defence 1.164 | Derry City attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 60 Sligo Rovers games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 30% | Derry City 36%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 50% | Derry City 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights