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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sligo Rovers and Cork City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 35, as Sligo Rovers and Cork City drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.68 xG and Cork City 0.65 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against Cork City attack 0.70 / defence 1.46, drawn from 70/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 62% | Draw 25% | Cork City 14%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Cork City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Cork City's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights