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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sligo Rovers and Cork City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers and Cork City finished level at 1-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.68 xG and Cork City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Cork City attack 0.74 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 51% | Draw 25% | Cork City 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 51%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights