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Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers and Bohemians finished level at 0-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Bohemians attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 33% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 38%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 53%, Bohemians 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights