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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Sligo Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.26 xG and Bohemians 1.61 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 1.24 against Bohemians attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 30% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.19 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights