Sligo Rovers 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 8W 0D 2L at The Showgrounds — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sligo Rovers. A 0.70 PPG lead over Bohemians (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sligo Rovers, 1 for Bohemians and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 2–0 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 44% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Bohemians 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG and Bohemians 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.098 / defence 0.866 | Bohemians attack 1.035 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.011. Data: 69 Sligo Rovers games / 69 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 40% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 40% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.18 / Bohemians 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.098 / def 0.866 | Bohemians attack 1.035 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Bohemians xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 40% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Sligo Rovers 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Bohemians (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.10x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.03x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.94
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.09
0.91
Bohemians xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.91 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 69 games, going 23W 16D 30L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.38 PPG from 69 outings (25W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.38 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 8D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Sligo Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.29 points per game from 34 outings (11W 11D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 23W 16D 30L in their last 69 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 20D 24L in their last 69 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.65 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 35%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sligo Rovers) and 35% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bohemians in 35%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 41% of games; Bohemians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 35% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 0-2 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG and Bohemians 0.91 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Bohemians attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 40% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 26%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Bohemians 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.