Shelbourne 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Shelbourne take on Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shelbourne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L at Tolka Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shelbourne, 0 for Waterford and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.913 / defence 0.880 | Waterford attack 1.179 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 0.916. Data: 52 Shelbourne games / 15 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 33% | Draw 35% | Waterford 32%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Waterford 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 33% | Draw 35% | Waterford 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Shelbourne 0.96 / Waterford 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.913 / def 0.880 | Waterford attack 1.179 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.126 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waterford xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Waterford kick off?
Shelbourne vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Waterford part of?
Shelbourne vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 33% chance of winning, Waterford a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shelbourne and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Record (1 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 1 | Waterford 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.91) and Waterford's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
35%
2.86
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.91
0.95
Waterford xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.95 for Waterford, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shelbourne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waterford's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shelbourne are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shelbourne's scoring rate against Waterford's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shelbourne's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Waterford have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Shelbourne's games and 50% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Shelbourne's matches and 50% of Waterford's.
Do Shelbourne and Waterford tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Waterford in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Waterford 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Waterford attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 33% | Draw 35% | Waterford 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 100%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Shelbourne managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.