Shelbourne 2-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Shelbourne take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 30 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 30 September 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Shelbourne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for St Patrick's Athl., with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 46% versus St Patrick's Athl. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.81 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.729 / defence 0.758 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.166 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.960. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Shelbourne games / 67 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 37% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Shelbourne's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Shelbourne dominate the H2H record, yet St Patrick's Athl. are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 37% | St Patrick's Athl. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Shelbourne 0.81 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.729 / def 0.758 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.166 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.85
St Patrick's Athl. xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 2 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 31% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (3 meetings): Shelbourne 3W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.73) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
37%
2.73
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.66
0.85
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.85 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 29W 27D 11L from 67 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 31W 13D 23L across 67 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shelbourne on 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 16W 13D 4L from 33 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 12W 8D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.48 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 29W 27D 11L in their last 67 games (1.70 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 31W 13D 23L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.85 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 52%, St Patrick's Athl. 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Shelbourne) and 54% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 30%; St Patrick's Athl. in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 52% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Shelbourne's recent games and 54% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shelbourne 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 2-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.81 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.85 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.73 / defence 0.76 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 31% | Draw 37% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 28%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.