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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 15 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Shelbourne have won 3, St Patrick's Athl. 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Shelbourne in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.97 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.876 / defence 0.917 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.860 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.186. Data: 50 Shelbourne games / 50 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Shelbourne dominate the H2H record, yet St Patrick's Athl. are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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