Shelbourne 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 12 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shelbourne have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.15 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.957 / defence 0.851 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.979. Data: 48 Shelbourne games / 48 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.76. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Shelbourne 1.15 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.957 / def 0.851 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Shelbourne 1W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.96) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.01
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.82
0.67
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.67 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 25W 26D 21L from 72 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 23L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shelbourne on 1.40 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 14W 13D 9L from 36 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 17W 6D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.15 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.67 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 21%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.