Shelbourne 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L at Tolka Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.40 PPG lead over Sligo Rovers (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Sligo Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.25 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.891 / defence 0.780 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.056 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.008. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Shelbourne games / 53 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sligo Rovers 4.00. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | Sligo Rovers 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Shelbourne 1.25 / Sligo Rovers 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.891 / def 0.780 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.056 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.06x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 55/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.41
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.07
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.83 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 26D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 17D 31L from 72 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.24 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (14W 13D 9L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 8W 8D 20L from 36 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sligo Rovers 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Sligo Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 56% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Sligo Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shelbourne's games and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 56% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.25 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 25%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.