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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Shelbourne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.16 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.26 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 34% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 39%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights