Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.80 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shelbourne's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Shelbourne 1–0 Dundalk — a Shelbourne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Dundalk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 36% | Dundalk 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shelbourne surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.115 / defence 0.885 | Dundalk attack 0.921 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.146. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 42 games and Dundalk's last 41.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.29 | Draw 3.34 | Dundalk 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 80% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shelbourne 1.28 / Dundalk 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.115 / def 0.885 | Dundalk attack 0.921 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Dundalk xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 44% chance of winning, Dundalk a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.92x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 42 games and Dundalk's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Dundalk xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.93 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 26D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.68 PPG from 72 outings (34W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.68 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 14W 13D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 36 away games (12W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.51 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shelbourne have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shelbourne
2
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 7, Dundalk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 31%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 31% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.28 xG and Dundalk 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Dundalk attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 44% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 36%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.40 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.