Shelbourne 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 5 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.
Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 2.00 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shelbourne 0W, Derry City 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Derry City 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 30% | Derry City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.895 / defence 0.820 | Derry City attack 0.973 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.970. Data: 60 Shelbourne games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 38% | Draw 34% | Derry City 28%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 38% | Draw 34% | Derry City 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Shelbourne 0.96 / Derry City 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.895 / def 0.820 | Derry City attack 0.973 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Derry City xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 5 August 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 38% chance of winning, Derry City a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
Record (1 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 1 | Derry City 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.97x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.95
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.73
0.77
Derry City xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 13.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.77 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 28W 23D 9L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City's form line: 30W 18D 12L from 60 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.80 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (16W 9D 4L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 12W 10D 7L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.60 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Derry City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 28W 23D 9L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Derry City have gone 30W 18D 12L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.97 PPG; Derry City away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Derry City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 55%, Derry City 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shelbourne) and 45% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derry City in 45%; Derry City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 41% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shelbourne's recent games and 45% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Derry City tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Derry City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Derry City finished level at 0-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.96 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Derry City attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 38% | Draw 34% | Derry City 28%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 30%, Derry City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.78 PPG, Derry City 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.