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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shelbourne and Bohemians share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 27, as Shelbourne and Bohemians drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.07 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 35%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 34%, Bohemians 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shelbourne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.63 PPG, Bohemians 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights