🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shelbourne have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.

Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Shelbourne 0W, Bohemians 1W, 2D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 31% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.015 / defence 1.012 | Bohemians attack 0.987 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.041. Data: 44 Shelbourne games / 44 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 41% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 50% | Bohemians 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights