Shelbourne 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shelbourne's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shelbourne 0W, Bohemians 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 48% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 31% | Bohemians 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.03 xG and Bohemians 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.851 / defence 0.761 | Bohemians attack 1.075 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.000. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Shelbourne games / 61 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 38% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Bohemians 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 30% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 38% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Shelbourne 1.03 / Bohemians 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.851 / def 0.761 | Bohemians attack 1.075 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bohemians xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Record (1 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.85) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
38%
2.62
35%
2.83
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.85
0.82
Bohemians xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.82 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 28W 23D 10L from 61 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 21L across 61 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.41 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 16W 10D 4L from 30 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.31 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 28W 23D 10L in their last 61 games (1.75 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 23W 17D 21L in their last 61 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.93 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bohemians in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, Bohemians 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Shelbourne) and 40% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bohemians in 37%; Bohemians in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 43% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shelbourne's recent games and 40% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.03 xG and Bohemians 0.82 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.85 / defence 0.76 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 38% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Bohemians 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.75 PPG, Bohemians 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.