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Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.92 xG and Waterford 0.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Waterford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.39 / defence 0.80 against Waterford attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 63% | Draw 21% | Waterford 15%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 49%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights