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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 24 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shamrock Rovers, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.318 / defence 0.830 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.895 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.148. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Shamrock Rovers games / 52 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 55% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% BTTS from recent games.

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