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Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 4-0 hammering of St Patrick's Athl..

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.85 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 55% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights