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Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.13 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 43% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights