Shamrock Rovers 0-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shamrock Rovers at 1.80 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shamrock Rovers, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 48% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.44 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.130 / defence 0.881 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.985 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.923. Data: 67 Shamrock Rovers games / 66 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 5.00. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.44 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.130 / def 0.881 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.985 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.923 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.80
St Patrick's Athl. xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 0 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 51% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (2 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 0W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.13) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.42
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.24
0.80
St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.80 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 66 games, going 33W 21D 12L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.56 PPG from 66 outings (30W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shamrock Rovers on 1.82 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 20W 9D 3L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.28 points per game from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.45 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 33W 21D 12L in their last 66 games (1.82 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 13D 23L in their last 66 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.16 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Shamrock Rovers) and 53% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shamrock Rovers 0-3 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.44 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.80 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a St Patrick's Athl. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 48%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.82 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.