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Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sligo Rovers beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.69 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.80 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.12 / defence 0.80 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 58% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 17%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 49%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights