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Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Sligo Rovers 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.35 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.41 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.18 / defence 1.41, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 58% | Draw 20% | Sligo Rovers 22%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights