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Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Shamrock Rovers 0-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.59 xG and Shelbourne 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against Shelbourne attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 53% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 21%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 51%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, Shelbourne 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights