🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne finished level at 2-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.29 xG and Shelbourne 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 40% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 31%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 47%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights