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Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Drogheda United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Drogheda United 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.55 xG and Drogheda United 0.71 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against Drogheda United attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 16%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 49%, Drogheda United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Drogheda United's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights