Shamrock Rovers 4-1 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Cork City travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 June 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shamrock Rovers's home record at Tallaght Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cork City — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Cork City have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Shamrock Rovers are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 1 for Cork City and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cork City in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 49% | Cork City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.47 xG and Cork City 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.345 / defence 0.750 | Cork City attack 0.957 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.126. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Shamrock Rovers games / 19 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Cork City 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 64% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 30% | Cork City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 51% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.47 / Cork City 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.345 / def 0.750 | Cork City attack 0.957 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cork City xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 June 2025 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers 4 - 1 Cork City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 74% chance of winning, Cork City a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Record (6 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 2W | Draws 3 | Cork City 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.47. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.23
10%
9.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.28
0.81
Cork City xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
9.75
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
8%
11.78
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
1%
114.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.81 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 18W 10D 9L from 37 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 22L across 37 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Cork City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 1.89 PPG; Cork City away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cork City in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
1
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Cork City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 53%, Cork City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Shamrock Rovers and 68% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cork City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 68% of Cork City's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Cork City tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cork City in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Cork City 4-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.47 xG and Cork City 0.81 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Cork City attack 0.96 / defence 1.44, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 49%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Cork City (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.