Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 23 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 0W, Bohemians 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 48% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 49% | Bohemians 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.105 / defence 0.966 | Bohemians attack 1.107 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 0.935. Data: 66 Shamrock Rovers games / 65 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 3.85. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.38 / Bohemians 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.105 / def 0.966 | Bohemians attack 1.107 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.395 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Bohemians (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.11x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.47
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Bohemians xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.00 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 32W 21D 12L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 24W 19D 22L from 65 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.13 PPG from 31 outings (19W 9D 3L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 10D 11L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.29 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 32W 21D 12L in their last 65 games (1.80 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.13 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 52%, Bohemians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 39% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bohemians in 36%; Bohemians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 45% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 39% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 45% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 26%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 49%, Bohemians 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.