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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Galway United edge out Waterford 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galway United beat Waterford 1-0 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.49 xG and Waterford 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Waterford attack 1.27 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 40% | Draw 28% | Waterford 32%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Waterford's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.44 PPG, Waterford 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galway United win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights